Poker Strategy - Dynamic Hand Value

I have received a lot of questions regarding this topic, so I am going to dedicate an entire article to it. Most advanced players know that Sklansky hand rankings (or my hand rankings for that matter) are not set in stone but are rather general guidelines for ranking hands. This is because hand value fluctuates greatly depending on the number of people in the pot. Many people are not quite sure how to treat their starting hands when the game's dynamic fluctuates between loose/tight and thus affecting the number of people in the pot. The answer to this dilemma lies with what type of hand you hold, and how many players this type of hand is suitable against.

I am going to divide the types of hands into three categories: Large pairs (JJ or higher), Big cards (two cards of JQKA), and small pairs/suited connectors (I know they are totally different but I am going to treat them the same here, you'll see why). Most of this is written assuming the game is in a longhand/limit context.

Large Pairs

These are 'premium' hands that people hope to receive. They have a lot of value in of themselves and are not board-dependent to win. People generally raise preflop with these hands for value, but often a major reason to raise preflop is just to knock people out. For example, consider KK. Unless an ace hits the board, KK will probably be the best hand at the flop. However, if the board is Q102 and someone has QJ and someone else has AK, they will be tempted to draw to see another card. If you make this more complicated and make the Q2 suited, someone with two cards of that same suit will be drawing as well. All of the sudden, you face a situation where there are about 16 outs (depending what the suited cards are) against you. Now, while you still have the highest chance out of anyone to win the pot, it is more likely that someone else will win the pot isntead of you!

This is a common situation with large pairs, where they are the best hand at the flop but there is enough runners out there that one of them is bound to beat you at the river. Thus, the way to alleviate this situation is to knock these people out of the flop by making raises aimed at limiting the size of the pot. Reraise people after they raised you to make it expensive to see the pot and raise at the flop to knock people out. For example, in the above situation, if you were in early position and there were 5 people at the flop, you should consider check at the flop in the hopes to check-raise to knock the people between you and the original better out. That way, people with 5 outs or less won't be in the pot against you and you have to worry less about longshot draws beating you. Another tip that applies to a loose game is to perhaps not raise too much preflop. For example, if you are in late position now and someone raised and 4 people cold called the raise, do not reraise because all you are doing is beefing up the pot and giving people an incentive to chase even more. Thus, aim your raises to limit the size of the pot and increase your chances of winning.

Big Cards

Big cards like AK/AQ/KQ are great for shorthanded games, but often a curse in longhanded games. While big cards can at least be an overpair and win money from someone whose hand won't likely improve (such as top pair/top kicker), these hands are the ones that make top pair/top kicker. Thus, when you hit the board with these hands, unless you are outkicking your opponent or your opponent is an idiot, he or she will generally be on a draw against you. Thus, you generally want to go ahead and take the pot down at the flop, or at least make it very expensive for your opponent to see the turn.

Small/Medium pairs and Suited Connectors.

These hands change drastically in value depending on the situation. Assuming a non heads up situation (where small pairs do well simply do the chance of your opponent not hitting anything), these are hands you want to play in a multiway pot. You generally won't hit much with these hands, or you will hit a very nice hand like a three of a kind, flush, or straight. The overreaching goal with these hands is to have pot odds in your favor. (Note: Axs plays a lot like a suited connector.)

If you have a suited connector, you are hoping there are enough callers and dead money in the pot to justify drawing to the straight or flush. Pot odds is why these hands will show a profit with four or more people in the pot, but will generally be poor against two or three opponents. In a multiway pot with a suited connector, you may have a flush or straight draw (that will win if you hit) but only must put in 1/10 of the pot to see the next card, which is very good odds.

If you have a small pair, you are hoping for the 13% chance of hitting a set on the flop. So if 7 people are in the pot, you have the exact pot odds for a set. However, for small pairs, not only are the pot odds good for a set, the implied odds once you hit your set are great. If you hit your set, chances are good that someone will have a second best hand that has a slim to none chance of being you (for example if you have 33, and flop is KJ3, there's a good chance someone will pay you off with a K or maybe even a J). So small pairs really begin showing their profit potential with around 5 or more people in the pot.

A common response to the small pair strategy is "How should I evaluate the set potential of large pairs." After all, I talk about how the implied odds once you hit a set are generally great. Unfortunately, this does not apply to large pairs. If you hit a set with a large pair, there's a good chance it will be top set (meaning there's no cards on the board that are higher than that), so you won't get much action from anything besides draws. After all, if you have AA and the flop is (AJ5), there's only so much action you can get from a hand like KJ.