Free NFL Picks for Week 14

Oh, the horror! The horror of going 5-9 in week thirteen. Lucky is clinging to a positive mark for the season at 92-89-6. Week fourteen looks impossible to predict so it will probably be a monster of a winner! The NFL is nuts! ESPN's Tom Jackson claims this is the most unpredictable season he has ever witnessed and I would concur!

Bengals @ Patriots(-11) - Coach Belichick will have Corey Dillon in handcuffs on Sunday. He likes to do ridiculous things like that. Dillon could run all over his former team, but Belichick likes to show everyone he doesn't need any player to win ball games. Dillon will see a limited number of carries, but the Patriot's Tom Brady will be up for the challenge. I see something like week 1 against the Colts. Brady will come out with Dillon on the bench, running some Run and Shoot offense, no huddle, and they will stomp a less talented Bengals team. Carson Palmer will cool off this week. His interceptions will match if not exceed his TD passes. The Patriots by 11 is tough because they play to close to many opponents. But if they play anywhere near 75% of how they could, the game should be a sleeper by quarter 3. The Pats show the NFL who's defending champ in week 14. I will be watching. Okay, I'll at least stay posted. I'll watch Boomer during his 2 minute drill, how about that?
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Giants @ Ravens(-10) - The Giants got pistol whipped by the Redskins last week. That's enough for me to take the Ravens. The Redskins are horrible. The Ravens aren't horrible, even if Chester Taylor is running the ball. Boller is bad, but not bad enough not to throw a couple touchdown passes against a team that allowed Patrick Ramsey, of all people, to throw 2 in a single game. Ouch! Not that it should matter much. I predict the Ravens D will score more points than the Eli Manning led Giant offense. Ravens have to win this game, while the Giants gave up weeks ago.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Lions @ Packers(-9.5) - Looks like Brett Favre really showed the Eagles who was boss. Okay, so I missed that one, we all make mistakes from time to time. Yeah, yeah, I made a bunch of mistakes last week. This week will be different. I kind of, really believe, and promise a little that my picks will be better. This week is tough, there are only 2 games where teams are less than 6-point underdogs and this isn't one of them. Last week, the Packers really showed the odds makers that they deserved to be 9.5-point favorites. They are crazy, but I'm with them on this one. Follow me into crazy odds maker world, and see if we can both make some dough. Brett Favre was horrible last week. In fact, Donovan McNabb threw more touchdowns in the first half (5) then Favre completed passes in the second half (3). But this is the thinking: Brett can't possible play that terribly two weeks in a row, his chest hair won't let him. Brett is a competitor and he's got to be a little ticked about his big game performance, or lack there of. He, undoubtedly, let his facial hair grow all week, anticipating a must win in Lambeu. Must win might be a stretch, but Brett will play as though it is. The Packers will rally behind their fearless leader and destroy a Lion team that gained a little confidence last week. Packers by two TD's in this one, no problem. Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Seahawks (+6) @ Vikings - Both these teams had me pissing and moaning last weekend. The Hawks lost to Dallas, which hurt like an ingrown toenail. Parcells is looking good on waiting for Julius Jones and picking up a number 1 pick in next year's draft. The Hawks have been piss poor lately, but should have won on Monday. Amazingly, they are still in first place in their division. Lucky for them. Hasselbeck was back last week, and he will be even better against the Vikings in week 14. I like the Hawks to win here, setting the Vikings up for a repeat performance of last years amazing escape from the playoffs. Arizona made like Houdini, pulling a Viking out of a post season before it started, amazing. The Vikings are trying to fit into the same category as the Saints. Moss is back, or is he? He's fine, he's hurt. Culpepper has come down to earth, but should put up big numbers against the Hawks, who let just about anybody cash in for 300 yards passing. The Hawks might go 8-8 and get into the playoffs. The NFC is a joke this year. Either way, both of these teams lost to B-teams last week, so the 6 the Hawks are getting, makes me feel a little easier.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Raiders (+7.5) @ Atlanta - The Raiders have been playing tough lately. They beat a Bronco team in the snow in Denver, and then lost by a TD to the Chiefs last week. Atlanta got shut out by a diligent Bucs squad a week ago. The way the season has been flowing, I should predict the Falcons to win by 20 points, but I just can't do it. I like the "grip it" and "rip it" passing attack the Raiders have been sporting on offense. Their defense still struggles, but now the offense puts up enough points to be in ball games. The Falcons pass defense is atrocious, so Kerry Collins might be set for a big weekend. When all is said and done, the spread is too big. A touchdown, maybe, but that half point looms large. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Chicago @ Jacksonville(-7.5) - After the quarterback circus the Bears had been running since starter Rex Grossman went out with a bum knee, they did the unthinkable and signed long time loser Jeff George. His absence from the league had reached a number that makes you use the plural version of year. But it was all a big trick. All along, through Jonathan Quinn medicine boy, Craig QB rating Krenzel, and Jeff "Who Knows George, the Bears had someone who could produce a QB rating over 65 all along. What" were they waiting for the last 7 weeks? I'm pretty sure they have my column tapped. They saw that I had risked it all on the Vikings, and that's what set them off. Newly signed George didn't play a snap; instead, Cowboy refugee camp Hutchinson led the tricky Bears to victory, by 10 no less. Now they are really trying to trick me, but I won't be had. I'll take the Jaguars in this one, not because they're better, but they are. Not because they need the win more, but they do. It's because the Bears showed me last week that they can win, and if anything, they were just trying to trick me. The Jags will call the Bears on their bluff, beating them by 3 touchdowns in a Jacksonville swamping. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

New Orleans (+7) @ Dallas - I can't believe the Julius Jones show is off to a thrill ride in Dallas. The Seahawks can't stop anyone, but neither can the Saints. He should be close to 150 again, and it's gonna make me sick. Luckily, the Cowboy defense is so terrible, even the inconsistent Aaron Brooks should make mince meat of their once daunting secondary. The Cowboys have won two straight and are pushing for a late season run that could have me in tears if they make the playoffs. But that won't happen. The Saints, who have already underachieved enough to write off their own season, will snap the towel at the Cowboys. Deuce should run easily against Dallas, but then again, he's ran well once or twice all year. Joe Horn, the one bright spot for the Saints will have another big game against a Dallas team that helped Matt Hasselbeck get back on track a week ago. Their D looks like they are playing with 9 guys out there; wide-open spaces have a whole new meaning. Saints to upset Dallas. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Colts @ Texans (+10.5) - The Texans will win on Sunday. Mark my words, Houston has underachieved lately, and will surprise Manning and his boys with a tough game. That's not it though. Manning will throw an interception near the end of the game in what would have been the game winning drive. Okay, it's true. I've been so off lately that I thought I'd go for it all with this one. Think… if that stuff actually happens you'll all be mystified. Well, I'm sticking with it. The Texans will stun the world! Or at least Sunday warriors everywhere. David Carr will be on in Texas, but Manning will get within one of the touchdown record. It wont be enough though, 10 points will be too hard to cover away from home. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Jets (+6) @ Pittsburgh - The Jets will upset Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. New York is a good team, and although they've come up short against the likes of the New England Patriots, they will be singing in the streets of New York on Sunday. A streak even more amazing then the Patriots consecutive wins mark will be broken. Big Ben will lose his first game. The Jets are too good and fast on defense, and Chad Pennington is back at the helm for New York. Curtis Martin will run for tough yards against a good D. In the end, the game will be closer than the 6-point spread. The Jets will win outright. Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET

Dolphins @ Broncos(-11.5) - The Broncos are bad lately, but bad enough to lose to the Dolphins? No! The Dolphins would be worse off winning, with only a good draft pick to lose. The Broncos still look like they will make the playoffs, and should come back to form against a depleted Miami team. Miami did put up good numbers against a good Bills D last week, but the Dolphins D did something inconceivable. They gave up a 7-yard run to Drew Bledsoe. In one-10 second trot 7 yards down field, Drew Bledsoe doubled his seasons rushing totals. I didn't see it, but I heard the person he ran by was seen slamming his head against the locker after the game. Bledsoe was quoted saying he felt like a track star during his run. In further statistical searching's, I found that Drew's yards per carry where right up at .5 yards per carry this season. Not bad for someone who could hike the ball, fall forward and gain 2 yards. This being said, Jake Plummer should find room to snake around in Denver on Sunday. So will the rest of the Broncos. This should be just as bad as the spread insists. Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET

Rams (+6.5) @ Panthers - This is funny. The Rams are bad, but not 6.5 points worse than the lowly Panthers. I know the Panthers have won a couple games lately, but that doesn't change what they've done for most of the year, lose. Nick Goings will rush for fewer yardages than Stephen Jackson, and Chris Chandler will throw up deep Hail Mary's that will be caught by the solid receiver combo of Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce. Taking the Rams to win here should pay around 2-1, if not more, so don't waste time on the 6.5 points. Bet big or go home. And then if you lose, go home to your box, like me. Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

49ers (+7) @ Cardinals - I was going to take the Niners here, but then I remembered how absolutely pathetic they are. Kevan Barlow, the guy who had signed up to be their lone bright spot, has been worse than disappointing. Unfortunately, his team is even more pathetic than he has been. The Cardinals shouldn't ever be 7.5-point favorites, but that doesn't take into account a game against San Francisco. McCown is back this week, and Dennis Green should get to show Arizona fans a little glimpse of the future. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and a tough defense should rub this one out without any interruptions.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Eagles (-9.5) @ Redskins - The Redskins put up big numbers against the Giants, but once again they are overrated against a superior Eagles team. Portis should be limited to 10-15 touches again in this one, because the Skins will be out of this game by half-time. Good thing for them, they can turn to the passing prowess of one Patrick Ramsey. He threw for more touchdowns than picks last week, which is a big deal for him. Ramsey won't make that stat a streak this week. TO should catch a couple passes, score a couple touchdowns, and mock the Redskins in some hilarious and disrespectful manner. I see TO dancing into the end zone.
Game Date: 12/12/04 20:35 ET

Cleveland @ Buffalo(-11) - I hate thinking about watching this game. I hate taking Buffalo and giving 11 points. However, the Bills have won five of their last six and the Browns have dumped six in a roll. Expect the Bills at home to jump all over rookie QB Luke McCown. Willis McGahee should have a monster day against a pathetic Brown run defense. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Bucs @ Chargers (-5 ) - This game looks much tougher to handicap after Tampa Bays dismantling of Atlanta last week. I expect the Bucs to come back to earth against a Charger squad that has played inspired football all year. McCardell will burn his old mates deep and tight end Antonio Gates is just plain unstoppable.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Chiefs ( +1.5 ) @ Titans - The Chiefs are finally getting production from recent first round draft pick Larry Johnson. Johnson should find room to roll against the badly dinged Titan defense. Billy Volek should find plenty to smile about looking at the pitiful Chief secondary. Take the Chiefs in a track meet.
Game Date: 12/13/04 21:05 ET

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Lucky Lester

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