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Lucky
went 7-7 last week with his picks
in as chaotic an NFL season as I have ever
seen. My record for the year so far is 62-60-5.
This week is winning time and I plan on
putting up big numbers to set the proper
trend for the second half of the season.
Lucky
Lester's Picks
Baltimore(-1.5)
@ Jets - The Ravens have looked solid in
recent losses and wins. Jamal Lewis is back,
showing his importance last week by scoring
a decisive touchdown in the 4th. Chad Pennington
is out for at least one week. That doesn't
make life easier against the toughest defense
in the land. Quincy Carter, not known for
his accuracy, will find quite the challenge
ahead of him this week against Baltimore.
The Jets will rely heavily on Curtis Martin.
The Ravens will force Quincy Carter to win
the game for the Jets. As much as I love
to see Ex-Cowboys succeed, I don't see it
happening for Quincy in week 10. Game
Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Detroit(+3)
@ Jacksonville - Byron Leftwhich is out
with an injury. He leaves his Jaguar team
in the hands of David Gerrard. Truly, the
games outcome lies at the feet of Fred Taylor.
Detroit will keep all of their attention
on Fred. Gerrard isn't the passing threat
Byron is by any means. Joey Harrington will
do his best to find Roy Williams against
the average secondary in Jacksonville. The
Jaguar D-Line will shutdown the Lion's pathetic
rushing attack, but will struggle against
Harrington. For the first time since week
three last year, Byron Leftwhich will sit.
This doesn't bode well for a Jaguar team
that finds themselves smack dab in the middle
of a tough playoff race. Game Date: 11/14/04
13:00 ET
Kansas
City (-5) @ New Orleans - I'll take
the Chiefs regardless of the spread, with
or without their holy man. Priest is doubtful,
so let's assume he doesn't play. The Saints
continue to be a disappointment, no matter
who plays for them. They have a stud running
back in Deuce McAllister, but he has only
stumbled to 100 yards in one game this year.
(102 yards vs Bucs week 5) He is only averaging
a Ron Daynish 3.5 yards per carry, with
a long run of, brace yourself… 16 yards!
Aaron Brooks continues to hold the ball
too long and continually make poor decisions.
Donte Stallworth hasn't shown near the promise
of his rookie campaign, and the defense
is still horrible. Kansas City may be without
the leagues most feared offensive player,
but Derrick Blaylock has shown he can get
the job done (see Atlanta game log two weeks
ago). Not t hat it matters. The Saints couldn't
stop Drew Bledsoe in an old school Nebraskan
option attack. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00
ET
Seattle
(even) @ St. Louis - Seattle is the
better team. They will come to play in Saint
Louis, which will hopefully be a good sign
for Seahawk fans. The Rams are much better
at home, but will stumble this week against
Seattle. The Rams are in the perfect image
of Dr. Jekyl and Miss Hyde. One week they
beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next
week they get kicked around by the powerful
Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins! They are never
exciting to bet for, often leaving you wondering
what the hell happened. Take Seattle here,
Shaun Alexander will continue his superb
season, rushing all over an average St.
Louis Defense. Hasselbeck will step up as
well. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Cincinnati(+3)
@ Washington - Portis should shellac the
Bengals rush defense, but Brunell and the
Skin's horrendous passing game will end
Washington's chances in a hurry. Since Gibbs
came in, the Redskins have been overrated
every week. Each time I see the Redskins
spread, I am stunned. Maybe, I miss all
the good things the Redskins do, but they
seem just as bad as their record, if not
worse. The Bengals have looked better of
late, feeding the ball to Rudi Johnson and
letting Carson Palmer catch defenses of
guard with the long ball. If they do that
against the Skins, they will win outright.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET
Minnesota
@ Green Bay(-4) - Green Bay always
has a hell of a time stopping Randy Moss.
Ask any Packer Die Hard, and they will tell
you how much they hate number 84. Unfortunately
for the Vikings, Randy has been ruled out
for this Sunday's game. Brett Favre should
feast on the Mossless Vikings by leading
his Packers to an old fashioned dominate
performance in Lambeu. Daunte Culpepper
has had a tough time without his partner
in crime. Expect more of the same against
an average but maturing Packer secondary.
Ahman Green will get the ball plenty, which
is a good sign for Packer fans, and me.
I'm taking Green Bay.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET
Buffalo(+8)@
New England - 8 points is to many for a
game that will match two of the top defenses
in the league. The Patriots get more credit,
because their team is flat out better. But
don't ignore Buffalo. Their young D has
been up to the challenge this year, doing
their best to make up for their poor offense.
New England should win this game, but Buffalo
will make it close. It doesn't hurt that
the Patriots often seem to play to the level
of their opponents. Buffalo running back
Willis McGahee has rushed for at least a
C-note in every game he has started.
Game Date: 11/14/04 20:35 ET
Chicago
@ Tennessee(even) - Yikes. I've got
to take, Chica... nope can't do it! Krenzel
can't win three straight, it's just not
possible. But can I take the Titans lead
by William Volek? Okay, I guess I have to
make sacrifices. I don't want to even hear
about this game come Sunday. But if I have
to pick, I'll take Chris Brown's team. Brown
has rushed for over 100 yards in 5 games
this year. (145+ in 3) Brown is averaging
an eyelash below 5 yards a carry, doing
his best work against poor run defenses...
like The Bears. I can only hope this game
marks the return of Steve McNair, but it's
not looking so good. Take the Titans at
home in a game you pray is not carried in
your area! Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00
ET
Houston(+9)
@ Indianapolis - Two good offenses, one
bad defense. Indianapolis will have a grand
spread to dig out of. Although Houston looked
pretty bad against the real Denver Broncos
last week, I think they have a good chance
to win against the Colts. Indianapolis hasn't
played like a 9-point favorite in the last
5 weeks. Last week, Peyton threw 5 touchdowns,
Edgerrin James rushed for over 120 yards,
and The Colts still barely snuck by a struggling
Vikings squad. David Carr will find holes
the size of Texas against a terrible Colt
Defense. Carr also has the option to just
hand the ball to his running back Davis.
Either way, the Texans have a decent defense
to match their good offense, making them
my upset pick of the week.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh(-3.5)
@ Cleveland - Wouldn't it be too perfect
if the Steelers, after ruining two perfect
seasons, lost to the Browns? It could happen.
But I won't pick it. Steeler D is too good
to bet against, and the Browns? They are
up and down with the best of them. When
it comes down to it, I just think the Steelers
are flat out better than either the Patriots
or the Eagles. Everyone can say what they
want about flukes, and David vs. Goliath
and all that business. But Pitt has a very
good defense and a rushing attack that is
second to none. I'll take Big Ben to continue
his phenomenal rookie season, leading his
team, and beating the Browns in Cleveland.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5) - Atlanta should
have no problem. The Bucs won't be able
to run this week against the stout run defense
in Atlanta. They won't be able to throw
either. In fact, they won't be able to do
any of the things they did against the Chiefs
D last week. Mike Vick, who looked real
good a week ago, looks to continue his growth
in the West Coast Offense. With two weeks
to prepare, the Falcons are my hands down
favorite against the Bucs. Game Date:
11/14/04 13:00 ET
Carolina(even)
@ San Francisco - Carolina. They're bound
to win one sooner or later, so why not against
the Niners, who should not win one ever
again. Kevan Barlow could be the biggest
disappointment this year for fantasy buffs.
I don't blame him; he's got defenses breathing
down his throat every snap. With Tim Rattay
and Ken Dorsey running the show, he's been
hard pressed to find any room to roam. Carolina
is bad, but they still have guys who remember
how to win, giving them a big advantage
in San Francisco. Game Date: 11/14/04
16:05 ET
NY
Giants(-2) @ Arizona - The Giants should
snap out of their slump a week after a loss
to Chicago. Arizona hasn't been horrible,
but the Giants have a solid playoff chance,
something the Cardinals threw out the window
when Anquan Boldin went down in the preseason.
Tiki Barbar has been amazing, holding on
to the ball, and sprinting to daylight at
every opportunity. He should continue his
great season with a couple touchdowns in
Arizona. (I'm secretly wishing for Emmitt
Smith to rush for 300 yards in this one.
Couldn't Dallas use him right now! Ha Ha)
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET
Philadelphia(-6.5)
@ Dallas - The Eagles should trounce a Dallas
team that is finally playing down to it's
talent level. (3-5) The Eagles looked like
a skeleton of their dominating selves last
week against The Steelers. They will get
back to their roots against a rueful Dallas
Defense, and a generous Offense. On Monday
Night Football, I can see a vision... Dallas
looks terrible again; I have a smile that
stretches as far as that stupid gap in The
Cowboy's roof. Bill Parcels is caught crying
on the sidelines... with Jerry Jones giving
him a hug... But in the end, the Cowboys
draft pick just gets better and better.
Hopefully they pick a lemon or two.
Game Date: 11/15/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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