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Hello
and welcome. Football season is upon us.
Hooray pig skin! Hooray beer! Hooray Sundays
sacked on the sofa! This is Lucky Lester
storming back from a .500 record a year
ago, relaxed and ready for a sophomore performance
that will have us rolling in the money.
Last year, week one was my best single week
record, and this year should be no different.
If you weren't here for the 2004-'05 season,
this is how it works. Week in and week out
I'll make my picks. I'll give reasons, both
personal and otherwise, that support my
decision on each game. I'll keep a log of
what happened each week, and you can always
check out my follow up articles to see how
I did. Are you ready for some big hits?
Well, get ready for that as well as some
Lambeau leaps, bulldogs dressed in dresses,
and home team heroics? Once again the odds-makers
have stumbled out of the box, and I'm standing
to make a pretty penny off of their mistakes.
Oakland
(+7.5) @ New England - This is Randy
Moss' big day. The Black and Silver has
been calling him since he was rocking a
bong in the dressing room on draft day.
That was the day Al Davis put a little notch
in his little black book. The only thing
holding this relationship back was some
run-ins with the local law enforcement,
a premature evacuation from a game, and
too much running of the mouth. Thanks Randy,
Al's dream has come true. Fortunately for
Mr. Davis, Moss hasn't only brought his
off the field antics to the Raiders, but
comes accompanied by the greatest receiving
ability the NFL has. Oakland has a buzz
about them; you could see it during the
preseason. Kerry Collins finally has someone
he can't overthrow, which should dwindle
his interception numbers. Lamont Jordan
should bring a steady rushing attack to
a team that didn't produce a thousand yard
back last year. And don't count out the
defense. It wasn't too long ago that Charles
Woodson was one of the best corners in the
league. If he can return to form, and the
600+ pound duo of Ted Washington and Warren
Sapp can perform up to their standards,
this team could be scary. As for the defending
champs, they should be up to their same
old tricks. They'll have to be to have a
chance in a tough AFC. They've lost a lot
of the coaching staff genius that helped
them win the last two Super Bowls. They've
also lost Teddy Bruschi. Ty Law has joined
the Jets, and I don't think they can do
it again. Tom Brady's a great quarterback
and Corey Dillon was everything the Pats
needed in his first year with the team,
but is that enough? Their Heart and Soul,
Ted, is out for the year, and I think it
will bring them down. Take Oakland to get
closer than a touchdown, making them winners
in my mind, and more importantly the bookie's.
Game Date: 09/08/05 21:00 ET
Denver
(-5) @ Miami - There is no reason the
Bronco's shouldn't be favored by a couple
of touchdowns against a team that doesn't
own a decent college starter. Okay, Gus
Ferotte was pretty good, but AJ Feely, he
didn't even play for the Oregon Ducks. As
if that wasn't enough, the perennially tough
as nails defense was torn apart and put
up for sale to any bidder. In fact, most
high priced stars, like Patrick Surtain,
were just cut. That makes for a tough year
for the Nick Saban led Dolphins. If the
defense can't keep them in games, there
is no way the Dolphins stumble on a handful
of wins, let alone a win against a solid
team from Denver. Ronnie Brown might find
room against an average run defense, but
I can't see enough from the passing game
to keep the Fins within a touchdown. The
only question from this game, who will be
the "real", featured back in Denver?
Who will add his name to the 1000-yard back
club? Tatum Bell? Or will it be an old name,
Mike Anderson? This is as easy as it gets.
Pick the Broncos in what has the makings
of an old fashion blow out, Firestone-style.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Cincinnati
(-3.5) @ Cleveland - The Browns aren't
worth a bet until Trent Dilfer proves he
can still win football games as the head
signal caller. The Browns aren't without
weapons though. Braylon Edwards has shown
glimpses of his future stardom, and Reuben
Droughns has proven he can pile up the yardage.
Defense is where the Browns will struggle.
They lost their best corner to the Ravens,
and they have a completely new coaching
staff. Dilfer has never proven he's a winner
without a dominant defense behind him. Things
won't change against the steadily improving
Bengals. I'm sure everyone's heard it a
thousand times this preseason, but I'm pretty
confident this will be the year Carson Palmer
makes his bid for a Pro Bowl. He has one
of the best young receivers in the game
as his go to guy, Chad Johnson. Rudi Johnson
is as steady as they come, and Marvin Lewis
has worked wonders with an average defense
to get them into the overall top ten a year
ago. This year will be even better for young
Bengals. Cinci is a play or two away from
the playoffs. Cleveland is a win or two
away from the number one pick in next years
draft. This one, like the Bronco game, is
a no-brainer. Take the Bengals on the road
in a quick stomping of Romeo's first game
as a head coach. Game Date: 09/11/05
13:00 ET
Houston
@ Buffalo (-5.5) - The Buffalo Bills
are a popular pick to win their way into
the playoffs this year. If you haven't heard,
this is why. Drew Bledsoe was released,
and JP Losman will take over as the leader
of a team that desperately needed to drop
the fat 7th grader who'd been taking poorly
timed sacks and throwing 4th quarter interceptions
for the last year and a half. Losman may
be young and immature compared to Drew,
but he could cartwheel down the field faster
than Bledsoe could sprint. That's not saying
JP has the form of a gymnast either. What
You Talking 'Bout Willis McGahee will finally
be fully recovered from his knee injury
that kept him out of football his rookie
season. Last year was just a glimpse of
what was to come from the former Hurricane,
this year should make us awe. Buffalo has
the best defense in football. After a preseason
scrimmage, Brett Favre said he hopes they
don't play them during the season. Houston
was hoping the same thing. SOL. Houston
should be a good team this year. David Carr
has looked poor throughout the preseason,
making people question if he'll ever have
the breakout year everyone has expected.
Dominick Davis is one of the best young
backs in the league, when he's healthy.
But he's been a slow starter since he broke
into the league. Look for Houston to stumble
out of the box, allowing the Buffalo defense
to make big plays early. The Texans will
fall down early, never to resurface with
the lead.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tennessee
@ Pittsburgh (-7) - The Steelers
might be a bit overrated a year after their
15-1 regular season record. But, they're
still a good team. 15-1? No. Opening dominance
against the Titans. Indeed. Roethlisburger
will get plenty of chances to find wide
open receivers against a team that lost
both of their starting receivers to "rebuilding-disease".
Steve McNair is back and supposedly better
than ever, though he's lost his favorite
receiver and a chunk of why the Titans were
so good the last few years. Derrick Mason
has a new home in Baltimore, and McNair's
never had a good on-field relationship with
talented wideout Drew Bennett. I fully expect
the Steeler offensive attack to struggle
without Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley, but
Willie Parker will find holes in a suspect
defensive line, and Hines Ward will show
why he deserves the new contract he held-out
for. Big Ben will calm down at the end of
the first half and the Steelers will pull
away from the Titans. A close first half
will end closer to a blowout than anything
else. Steelers win big; the Titans get one
game closer to the end of the season. Game
Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Chicago
@ Washington (-5.5) - In a real crowd-pleasing
move, the NFL brass has already put together
the game of the year. The Super Bowl hopeful
Bears and the strong and consistent Redskins
meet in what could be a real post season
match-up. Yah right! This is anything but
a top-notch contest, but at least Tag's
snuck these two teams into the same game.
Good work. The Bears' season drooled down
the drain when Rex Grossman had an early
exit, again. First year pro, Kyle Orton,
will have the reigns in what promises to
be everything but promising. Mushin Muhammad
is still a touchdown threat anywhere in
the red-zone, and the tandem of Thomas Jones
and rookie rusher Cedric Benson should be
formidable. Getting to the red-zone, or
even the next first down marker, is going
to be the challenge. The Bears have a solid
defense, but not when they've been on the
field for 75% of the game, and they will
be. They better be in good shape. Washington
has a tough defense that lost a little punch
with the departure of Fred Smoot. Shawn
Springs' ability to stay healthy, and LaVar
Arrington's come back from a flurry of injuries
will make the difference between a top flight
and average defense for the Skins. Patrick
Ramsey, who's looked "ehhhh" this
preseason, and for his entire career for
that matter, will make another attempt at
leading the Redskins to the playoffs. Clinton
Portis should be much improved from his
worst year ever. The trade of Larverneus
Coles for Santana Moss won't pay dividends,
but that won't keep Joe Gibbs from trouncing
the overmatched Bears and starting the season
with a much-needed win.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
Orleans @ Carolina (-7) - The Saints
still have the talented group of youngsters
they've always had. Well I guess they're
middle-agers now. Either way, everyone and
their brother knows Jim Haslet has himself
a set of playmakers on both sides of the
ball. Will the signing of Dwight Smith,
an ex-Buc, give the Saints what the need
to get to the next level? Maybe. Will it
help them beat Carolina in Carolina? Not
today Junior. The Panthers are as good as
they've been, even with Pro Bowler Mushin
Muhammad in a Bears uniform. Steve Smith
is back, and opposed to what he says, he's
as good and fast as ever. Steven Davis is
back in the backfield with Deshaun Foster,
and they still have that D. Carolina will
be swinging for the fences this year. Julius
Peppers might be the biggest talent in all
of football, and Kris Jenkins, Mike Rucker,
ex-Seahawk Ken Lucas, and the rest of the
Panther D will keep opposing teams on lockdown
all year long. Aaron Brooks and all his
inconsitency won't be an exception. Look
for Brooks to get hit often on Sunday. The
Saints defense looked dismal against the
run all preseason, and now they have to
play the pound it in your face Panthers
on opening day. Talented Saints running
back Deuce McAllister will find some yardage
early, but it won't be enough to keep the
Panthers from taking the game by two touchdowns.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay @ Minnesota (-6) - The Vikings
are better since the departure of Randy
Moss. As are the Raiders, but that's another
story. The Vikings can only worry about
the Vikings, and aside from a Whizzenator,
the headlines about the mishaps and screw-ups
of Viking star players has been nil since
Moss's departure. One point for Minnesota.
Daunte Culpepper is still the talented one-man
attack he's always been, and always was,
even when Moss was out with injuries for
6 games last year. All Daunte needed was
a defense to hold their end of the bargain.
With the departure of Randy Moss, the Vikings
had enough room on payroll to get the players
they needed to level off that side of the
ball. As for the offense, Daunte still has
big play options with Nate Burleson, Michael
Bennett, and rookie blazer Troy Williamson.
I mean "speed" blazer, not "Randy
Moss during the off season" blazer.
Plus, the Vikings always start out 5-0.
Tampa Bay finally has the fixings for a
rushing attack with rookie star Carnell
Williams manning the backfield. Brian Griese
has shown that he can be a decent starting
quarterback, but can he lead the Buc's to
a winning season and a playoff picture?
Only time will tell. Tampa's defense has
always been stout, and this year will be
no different. Some key loses have brought
them down from their pedestal, but top 10
won't be a stretch. My opening day diagnosis
is this; the Vikings will use their offensive
fire power to pull ahead early. Some big
plays from Carnell Williams will have the
Buc's fighting back early in the second
half, but Culpepper will keep the Tampa
Bay comeback-excitement to rest with a vintage-Culpepper
bomb to rookie wideout Troy Williamson.
The new and improved Viking D will step-up
and make a big play down the stretch, keeping
the Vikings up 10 as time expires. Take
the Vikes in an exciting game in Minnesota.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Seattle
@ Jacksonville (-3) - Seattle made
some good moves in the off-season, keeping
their big three; Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasslebeck,
and Walter Jones. Koren Robinson and the
fiasco that was his career in Seattle is
now over, and the Seahawk brass can go to
sleep at night knowing their star receiver
won't be in jail with a DUI in the morning.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks there is
a downside to the absence of Koren Robinson.
Somebody else has to start opposite Jackson.
That someone will be Bobby Engram and a
plethora of different names and faces. If
someone or a couple of them step up, watch
out for the Seahawk offensive attack. As
for now, I have to bet the Seattle offense
continues to struggle, and the Jacksonville
defense, which is very underrated, will
take advantage of Seattle shortcomings.
Byron Leftwich is going into his third year.
He should be better than ever. Fred Taylor
looked healthy in his single preseason performance,
which means good things for the Jags and
their fans. Reggie Williams has looked like
the guy the Jags drafted, instead of the
imposter that showed up last year. This
is great for Leftwich, who should have Jimmy
Smith, Williams, Matt Jones, and Taylor
to get the pig to. The Jag's defensive line
got some much needed help when they signed
Reggie Hayward in the off season. The Jaguars
are on their way to the playoffs. They'll
start with a tough game at home against
a good Seahawk team, but they should come
out on top. Three points is nothing at home,
and the Jags look to be the better team.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
York Jets (+3) @ Kansas City - The Jets
and the Chiefs. What a game. This is my
pick for game of the week. Philly-Atlanta
should be grand, and Colts-Ravens will be
fun, but no game excites me more than Priest
Holmes running his legs at one of the most
improved teams in the league. This Jets
defense just got better and better last
year, and this year will be no different.
Ty Law is now a Jet, and his leadership
and shutdown ability on the corner will
give the Jets a huge lift. Trent Green lost
his number one receiver, Jonnie Morton.
But Eddie Kennison will flash his ability
as the first receiver option in Kansas City.
But really, everyone knows Tony Gonzalez
is Trents real number one, and he's wearing
red and white. Holmes has one of the most
exciting backups in football, Larry Johnson.
He'll get his chances to make things happen.
Will all the new defensive additions be
enough to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl?
Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight,
and rookie linebacker Derrick Johnson have
a big task ahead of them, because God knows
the Kansas City defense was as bad as any
team in the NFL. Both teams will flash their
fury, awing the masses, and reminding us
why we all love football. In the end one
of these great teams has to lose. The Jets
are too steady on both sides of the ball,
and the Chiefs, who've yet to gel into the
cohesive defensive unit that they'll become
will fall just short on opening day. Chad
Pennington will be happy to have his old
pal, Coles, back on the field. Curtis Martin,
future hall-of-famer Curtis Martin, will
have one of his classic opening days. Coach
Edwards will be all smiles after a powerful
performance against the playoff bound Chiefs.
His Jets will escape Kansas City with a
road victory. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00
ET
Arizona
(+2.5) @ New York Giants - The Cardinals
are getting plenty of hype this off-season.
I don't know if it's Dennis Green, a great
draft, or the abundance of talent the Cardinals
have all over the field, but I like Arizona
to do big things all year on their way to
the playoffs. Weird. I never thought I'd
be saying that. I don't think Kurt Warner
will look like the MVP he was in St. Louis,
but I do think he'll look rejuvenated with
the talent he has around him. JJ Arrington
has had a tough preseason, but he'll come
around, and in the meantime, the Cards still
have Marcel Shipp and others to contribute.
The Giants might be starting Tim Hasselbeck.
If that happens to be a truth by the time
you read this, stop reading now and make
a bet on the Cardinals… If Eli Manning
is still the starter, well, do the same
thing. Manning isn't ready to lead these
Giants to the playoffs, or an opening day
win against the much-improved Cardinals.
Tiki Barbar is one of the most underrated
backs in the league, but who knows if and
or when his "fumblitis" will return.
Week 1? Plaxico Burress was a number 2 receiver
in Pittsburgh. He's being asked to be Eli's
go-to-guy. Will he fold under the pressure?
Or will he step up to his potential? The
Giants defense gets Michael Strahan back,
but he won't be enough to keep the Giants
on top in New York. Arizona has too many
weapons in their arsenal, and Kurt Warner
is too excited to snap the towel on the
team that sat him down last year when the
playoffs weren't so far away. Eli's first
year as a full time starter will begin with
a loss at home, and an entire week of "How
does it feel to get beat by Kurt?"
questions. Good luck Eli! Game Date:
09/11/05 13:00 ET
St.
Louis (-6) @ San Francisco - This is
the easiest game of the week. I plan to
make all my money right here. The Rams will
slaughter the 49ers. Do I think the Rams
are that good? Not at all, in fact, I think
they'll be lucky to be 9-7 this year. But
I'll tell you one thing I'm sure of; two
of those wins will come from games against
San Francisco. Tim Rattay will be starting
for the 49ers, which has never seemed to
workout for the club. Things won't change.
Steven Jackson is too good for the Niner
defense to stop, hell, so is Marshal Faulk,
or maybe even Marsha Brady? This game will
be good for a few good highlights though,
so it might be worth a check-in from time
to time. "Bulger deep to Holt,"
"Bulger long to Bruce," "Bulger
with a deep interception," "Steven
Jackson 60 yards down the right side."
Something along those lines. Notice, there
is no 49er scoring involved in those highlights.
Don't be amazed if that actually happens.
Rams huge, think 35-3. Game Date: 09/11/05
14:15 ET
Green
Bay @ Detroit (-3) - I never thought
I'd see the day Detroit was favored against
Green Bay. Now I can't believe the Lions
are only favored by 3 in Detroit. Everyone
knows the Lions play good ball at home,
and everyone also knows that you can't have
a good team with a terrible defense and
a shoddy offensive line. The Pack has both.
The Pack also has Brett Favre. This is both
good and bad. He's going to throw touchdowns…
and interceptions. This year could be the
year Brett ends up on the south end of .500.
What a way to go out. Ahman Green has looked
miserable rushing behind the makeshift line
in 'Sconsin. Brett has had both good and
bad games in the preseason, but who cares
right, that was preseason. Detroit has been
happy with Joey Harrington's performance
this preseason, and they better be, because
Jeff Garcia is out for the year with a broken
chicken leg. So much for a quarterback controversy.
Harrington will actually have to try to
do poorly to keep the Lions out of games.
All over the field Detroit has playmakers.
Jumpballs might be one of the Lion's biggest
weapons. Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charlie
Rogers, Kevin Jones… my God, just throw
the damn ball down field, see what happens.
Those 4 guys would kill in a 4x100 relay.
They'll win this game, too. Take the Lions
in a high scoring event. Game Date: 09/11/05
14:15 ET
Dallas
@ San Diego (-4.5) - San Diego is
without their biggest receiving threat,
tight end Antonio Gates. He's suspended
for the first game because of his little
holdout. That was a good move. Idiots. Anyway,
even without Gates, the Chargers still have
the upper hand. Ladainian Tomlinson is the
best the NFL has to offer, and Drew Brees
hasn't seemed to have lost the magic he
pulled out of his helmet a year ago. Keenan
McCardell has had an entire off season to
learn the Charger offense, which should
add to his effectiveness. Reche Caldwell
is back after an injury cost him most of
his third year. He was in the process of
breaking out before he went out broken.
Look for him to be a bigger part of the
offensive attack in San Diego this year.
Even with the good draft, and big off-season,
I don't think the Dallas Cowboys will come
out victorious in this one. Drew Bledsoe
has gotten mixed reviews during the preseason.
Figure that, Drew Bledsoe, inconsistent.
Wow! Dallas went out and bought offensive
line help, which should add to Drew effectiveness.
Unfortunately, they didn't go out and get
Drew some legs or a brain. Drew will still
hold the ball too long and get sacked because
he's about as mobile as an upside down turtle.
And he'll definitely still throw into double
coverage… interception! I can't wait
to see the blank stare on Parcells face
the first time Drew sends a beautiful spiral
to Quentin Jammer (Charger cornerback).
The Chargers defense was young last year.
Another year under their belt has only made
them better. Look for Drew Brees and company
to light up the overrated Dallas defense,
eliciting laughter from me, and a look of
horror on Bill's face as his Cowboys fall
short in the season opener.
Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Indianapolis
@ Baltimore (+3) - This is one of
the better games of the day. Will the Colts
number one ranked secondary be able to stop
the talented signal caller, Kyle Boller?
What can I say? That lines a load of BS.
The Colts secondary, right near the bottom
of the league, is depleted, and injury ridden.
Kyle Boller is… bad. But he has too
many weapons and coaching specialists to
fail. And if anyone can keep Peyton Manning
and the Colts from scoring a ton of points,
it has to be Ray Lewis and his group of
trusty steeds. Right? If Jamal Lewis can
step in and play like he can, the Ravens
will upset the Super Bowl favored Colts
in Baltimore. Even Kyle Boller should be
able to light up the Colts secondary. Baltimore
might have the best defensive players one
team has ever had. Samarri Rolle is great,
in fact, every single one of their defensive
backs is fantastic. Their fourth guy is
Neon Deion. How much better can it get?
Look for the Ravens to take the Colts in
this opener. It isn't the popular pick,
but it's the right one. Manning will be
limited to a couple touchdown passes, and
one too many interceptions. Boller will
look good, which might be the last time
all year, leading his team to an opening
day victory. Or should I say riding their
defense to victory? Either way, Ravens win.
Game Date: 09/11/05 20:30 ET
Philadelphia
(-1) @ Atlanta - This is a great Monday
night opener. Philly has been picked by
just about everyone to repeat as NFC Champions,
and I'm not one to argue. Their defense
is back in full force. Donovan McNabb and
TO looked to be on the same page in their
lone preseason game. Brian Westbrook is
very underrated. He's a great speedy back
who can catch passes and do just about everything
you can ask from a guy. Donovan McNabb hasn't
gotten nearly enough credit for what he's
become in such a short time. He's Philly's
MVP, bar none. Philly's defense took a big
hit when Corey Simon was released last week,
but they don't seem to be worried about
it, so you shouldn't either. Mike Vick has
played very little snaps in the preseason,
but he looked good. He has improved as a
pocket passer, which unfortunately, the
Falcons want him to be. The Eagles defense
is too good to let Vick pick them apart
from the pocket. Look for more interceptions
than touchdowns from Vick. Michael Jenkins
and Roddy White as starting receivers? I
don't know if I'm as excited as Mike sounds
in interviews. Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett
will help keep the Falcons on the top of
team rushing, and both should find a little
room against an average run stuffing D.
But that won't be enough. This should be
a good game featuring two playoff bound
ball clubs, but the Eagles will show their
NFC superiority late, getting the win by
a touchdown or two. Take the Eagles, because
that's what I'd do. Game
Date: 09/12/04 21:00 ET
Well
folks there you have it, my picks for week
one. Make sure you come back to check out
Lucky Lester's picks for week two of what
should turn out to be an excellent football
season.
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