Free NFL Handicapping for Week 1

SUPER PICKS

Ravens (-3) @ Browns: Jamal Lewis ran for 500 yards in two games against the Browns last year, not to mention 295 in one game. Watch Jamal run over a small defensive line that has done nothing but underachieve. The already great Raven Defense will be extra juiced with the much awaited return of Prime Time. With Butch Davis in danger of loosing his job and new QB Jeff Garcia upset with the team's cohesiveness, I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns didn't score a point. Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Chiefs (+3) @ Denver: The odds makers must have more trust in Jake Plummer than I do. Dick Vermeil's super offense should give a solid Denver defense more then they can handle. Priest Holmes is always good in openers and the Chiefs are perennial quick starters (10-0 last season). Denver will miss Clinton Portis when they can't rush past the very average Kansas City defense buoyed by Gunther Cunningham's new schemes. At three point underdogs the Chiefs are a safe pick in week one. Game Date: 09/12/04 20:40 ET

Chargers @ Texans (-5): David Carr has the Texans running on full throttle. His weapons are lethal with Andre Johnson and Dominique Davis in their second seasons as NFL players. Corey Bradford has always been a deep threat, gaining 20 yards a catch last year. The Chargers on the other hand have LaDainian Tomlinson, and that's it. I can't name a wide receiver; they cut Kevin Dyson, the only one I had ever heard of, and wide receiver coach James Lofton said his receiving corps number one job was blocking for LaDainian Tomlinson. Sounds like a tough year. The Texans are good and San Diego is bad. This is a no-brainer.
Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Falcons (-3.5) @ 49ers: Bet against the Niners. They are bad. The Miami Hurricane's have a more potent offense. At 3.5 point favorites I suggest mortgaging your grandmother's house on the game.
Game Date: 09/12/04 16:20 ET

Lucky Lester's Picks For Week One

Colts (+3) @ Patriots: Lucky's going to buck the trend here and go with the Colts to break out of their funk and take it to the Pat's in their own house. Manning is out to show he's worth the bank he got paid this off-season and I say he will. Look for a huge game out of Indianapolis' offense and an end to New England's daunting 14 game winning streak. Take the colts and the three points. Game Date: 09/09/04 20:05 ET

Titans (-3) @ Miami: Look for the Titans to exploit Miami's nightmarish off-season and win impressively. Tennessee replaced Eddie George with the much faster and more explosive Chris Brown, giving the Titans a ground attack they've lacked the last few years. Co-MVP Steve McNair will find Derrick Mason and Drew Bennett for big plays to seal the victory. Game Date: 09/11/04 13:00 ET

Raiders (+4) @ Steelers: I know the Raiders have lost their last nine road games, and I know they were last in the league in rushing defense one year ago, but they've turned the corner. There's no way new additions Warren Sapp and Ted Washington will let running backs run with ease on their watch. Rich Gannon will be back to his Pro Bowl status of 2002, and he'll find Jerry Porter for big plays. Al Davis went into the off-season making sure his Raiders wouldn't embarrass him again this year. The Raiders will upset Pittsburg in week one.
Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Buccaneers @ Redskins (-1.5): The Buc's are going to realize how much they're going to miss the likes of Warren Sapp and John Lynch when they meet Joe Gibbs' new workhorse Clinton Portis in week 1. Tampa Bay's totally revamped offensive line has yet to gel. Brad Johnson will feel the effects and miss his favorite receiver, camp holdout Keenan McCardell. Giving up only 1.5 points at home will is a bargain against the still-unsettled Buccaneer squad.
Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Jaguars (+3) @ Bills: Unfortunately for the Bills and quarterback Drew Bledsoe the Buffalo offensive line is still a work in progress. Not a good sign for a quarterback who was sacked 49 times a year ago. Bledsoe has never been quick on his feet, i.e. Fat Seventh Grader, and should prove helpless to escape from the athletic and young Jaguar defense. Points have been hard to come by in Jaguar pre-season, but Fred Taylor's return should benefit the team enormously, and look for Byron Leftwhich to hook up with stud rookie Reggie Williams early and often. Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Bengals @ Jets (-4.5): The usually generous Jets defense (28th against the run last year) will get a much needed lift when Carson Palmer shows up for his first start in week one. The Jets will surprise Palmer with their defensive team speed and rookie Jonathan Vilma will show why he was a first round selection. The Jets Chad Pennington will show why he's one of the best young quarterbacks in the league by wiring it out with superb accuracy to Santana Moss and new addition Justin McCarrins. Curtis Martin will be a force again this year, he's healthy and in as good a shape as ever. Coach Herman Edwards finally has his teams attention, they should surprise a lot of people his season.
Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Lions (+3) @ Bears: The young Lions will give an overmatched Bear defense too much to handle. Young stars are abundant on this skilled team, starring rookies Roy Williams and Kevin Jones and second year stud Charles Rogers who showed an ability to reach the end-zone early last season. Joey Harrington is primed for a breakout year and will be encouraged to let the ball fly. Steve Mariucci, in his second year, will have his young lions roaring early this season. The Bears are bad. Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Cardinals @ Rams (-11): Ouch! Eleven points is a lot to lay, but what else can you do? The hapless Cardinals will showcase Emmitt Smith's Hall of Fame ability, only five years too late. Dennis Green can't be excited about the loss of budding superstar Anquan Boldin, nor the nagging injuries to Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson. Marcel Shipp will be one of the team's biggest losses of the pre-season. All-Pro wide receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce should torch a sub par Cardinal secondary. It's going to be easy to feel sorry for Dennis Green in his first year with Arizona, but we might as well win money of his woes. This years Draft Bowl will take place early in the year as Phoenix takes on San Diego in week 2. Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Seahawks (-2) @ New Orleans: It's put up or shut up for a Seahawks team that is touted as an early Super Bowl contender. It's a lot to say for a team that hasn't won a play-off game since Holmgren began coaching the Hawks. They were also a dismal 2-6 on the road last year. But I'm taking the Hawks in this one. This young team showed their skill in the pre-season and will highlight hard-nosed running back Shaun Alexander against a Saints D that is shaky at best. Brooks was hurt often in the preseason and has yet to establish any rhythm. This high scoring affair should be entertaining, and the Seahawks will turn their road woes around.
Game Date: 09/12/04 13:05 ET

Giants @ Eagles (-9.5): Like the Ram/Charger game, this spread is a little too large for comfort. But the Giants offensive line has been hard-pressed to protect the ever-so-mobile Kurt Warner this pre-season, and I don't see that changing against the blitz-happy eagles and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. The play of new additions of Javon Kearse and Terrell Owens should convince Tom Coughlin to go back to NASCAR. Donovan McNabb's accuracy has improved, and his offense is stronger. Take the Eagles in an old rivalry that's turned into a new blow out. Game Date: 09/12/04 16:20 ET

Cowboys @ Vikings (-4.5): The Vikings had the number one ranked offense last season. The Cowboys had the number one ranked defense. Daunte Culpepper has looked phenomenal in the pre-season, completing nearly 80% of his passes. The Cowboys on the other hand have had trouble finding corner backs to start opposite Terrence Newman. Pete Hunter has seen pre-season balls fly over his head and into opposing receiver's hands. Randy Moss is awesome and should be ready to fly bye constant double teams. With the Cowboys paying too much attention to Moss, Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell should find themselves connecting with Culpepper for big plays. Vinny Testeverde will feel every bit his age in the menacing confines of the Metro Dome.
Game Date: 09/12/04 16:20 ET

Packers (+3) @ Panthers: Brett Favre has declared this year a Super Bowl or bust for his Packers. Brett's always been a Monday Night Hero. Carolina has stayed intact throughout their skill positions but has gutted their offensive line. Four starters are at new positions. The run-happy Panthers will find them self needing more time to gel, take the Pack and the points.
Game Date: 09/13/04 21:10 ET

Well folks there you have it, my picks for week one. Make sure you come back to check out Lucky Lester's picks for week two of what should turn out to be an excellent football season.

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Lucky Lester

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